Why you should go with your gut (when setting your fantasy lineup)

Fantasy football can really suck sometimes. Don’t stray from your gut feeling… It can be the difference between a win and a loss.

The last two weeks have been a disaster for my team. In fact, it might be about time for me to realize that my season is done. After six weeks my team was 3-3. Now, after two devastating losses, my team is 3-5. The curtains are certainly closing.

There was a common problem with both weeks – I didn’t go with my gut. Isn’t it funny how your gut is always right? No. It’s not. Especially when it comes to fantasy football losses of 1 point.

Setting your lineup early in the week (Tuesday, we’ll say) is something that I consider to be a fantasy football best practice. I have worked at this practice for quite some time. It seems like every time I make a last minute change it bites me in the butt. Two weeks ago (week 7) I benched Doug Martin in favor of C.J. Spiller. Last week (week 8) I benched Denarius Moore in favor of Steve Smith (from the Panthers). If you were to look at these swaps on a normal week, you wouldn’t think too much of it… Check their respective differences in points:

  • Week 7 – swap resulted in net point loss of 4.75
    • Doug Martin – 19.35
    • C.J Spiller – 14.60
  • Week 8 – swap resulted in net point loss of 2.9
    • Denarius Moore – 15.80
    • Steve Smith – 12.90

Had I left my lineup locked, I would have been 5-3. That is leaps and bounds better than 3-5 in a 13 week regular season. If I want a chance at making playoffs (in a 12 team league that grants 6 teams a playoff chance), then I can only drop one more game. Realistically, though, I have to win out to be a solid playoff contender.

Moral of the story – go with your gut. It is amazing to me how often your initial reaction / thought is the correct one. Sometimes keeping it simple and thinking less is the right way to go.

More post coming soon about trades that I’ve made this season, trades that are in the pipeline, and how my team looks compared to after the draft.

As always – thanks for the read, even on this grim occasion.

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